Donald Trump in Jail Makevamerica Great Again
Donald Trump is likely to maintain a grip on the populist fly of the GOP.
Highlights
- If convicted, Trump will be barred from running for federal role over again
- Trump is already facing a number of legal threats that pre-date election
- Any political comeback will depend on new ways to mobilize his base
Most ex-presidents spend their fourth dimension out of office playing golf, getting their libraries in club, making well-paid speeches, writing even more lucrative memoirs and biting their tongues about what the next guy is doing. Other than the golf, the road ahead for Donald Trump, a president who has never adhered to his office'south norms, will be unlike any other.
We know where he will non be when his term ends at noon on Wednesday - he's the first president since Andrew Johnson in 1869 to reject to attend his successor'due south inauguration. Only at that place is no clear reply yet on what he plans to practise next. Even where he plans to live is potentially up in the air - though Trump says he'south moving to his Mar-a-Lago individual social club, some of his Palm Beach, Florida, neighbors are challenging his power to live there full-time.
In the near term and possibly longer, Trump's post-presidential options volition exist circumscribed by the fallout over his Jan. 6 spoken language egging on the crowd that would go on to storm the U.Due south. Capitol, including a celebrated 2nd impeachment. If he's convicted at the upcoming Senate trial, he'll almost certainly exist barred from ever running for federal role over again. For now, some of Corporate America'south biggest names are shunning the businessman president, "de-platforming" him on social media and cutting him off from certain professional and financial services. Tens of millions of his fellow citizens will continue to revile him, rendering the Trump brand toxic to half the country and harming prospects for his real estate, hotel and golf resort empire.
But tens of millions of other Americans are probable to form a durable base of operations of support, making Trump a political force for years to come regardless of whether he seeks the presidency again. Deprived of his @realDonaldTrump megaphone and other online platforms, the former president will accept to recall of new ways to mobilize - and possibly monetize - his loyal followers. Though Trump will likely be frozen out of mainstream media opportunities, he could launch his own endeavors focused on his conservative base, mayhap a Trump network to go head-to-caput with Fox News or a Trump social media site to compete with Twitter.
Of form, that's assuming he'south non completely consumed by court battles one time he leaves role. Even before the Capitol anarchism, he faced several lawsuits and potential criminal investigations. His wild ballot-fraud claims and possible incitement of the riot have only added to his legal adventure. In that location'south a very real possibility that Trump could wind up in jail.
It'due south probably not wise to count out Trump though. Widely dismissed afterwards his 1990s Atlantic City casino bankruptcies, he came back strongly a decade after "The Apprentice." And then, when his ratings began to wane, he latched on to the racist birther conspiracy almost President Barack Obama and congenital a new, correct-wing audience that ultimately carried him into the White Firm. Even his defeat by President-elect Joe Biden was by a much narrower margin than polls had predicted.
Every bit for that presidential library, normally a gleaming monument to a leader's achievements? There are no public plans yet, but comedian Luke Thayer and former Trump White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci have made some suggestions in their spoof djtrumplibrary.com site, including a "Lie to America" exhibition and a "grift shop."
Politics
Before the Capitol anarchism, information technology looked similar Trump would remain the Republican Party standard-bearer, either running for president himself again in 2024 or acting as kingmaker in the GOP field. He was also expected to exact revenge against a long line of Republicans who crossed him, most notably Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to endeavour to overturn Biden's election win in the state.
Only some believe Jan. 6 changed all that.
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp
"When the Trump presidency is discussed in the near, medium and long term by anyone, all conversations will begin and end with the day of coup," said Republican strategist and former George W. Bush White Firm aide Scott Jennings. "And I don't know how you ultimately get back to the American people and say, 'Please overlook that one day considering it wasn't really our mistake.' Well, yes it was. Information technology was your fault."
A Jan. fifteen Pew Research poll supports that view, finding only 29% job blessing for Trump, with 68% of the sample saying they don't desire him to remain a major political figure in the years to come up.
The riot has certainly exposed a rift in the GOP. Republican House Briefing Chair Liz Cheney was one of 10 members who crossed party lines and joined Democrats in impeaching Trump for inciting insurrection. Several Republican senators, including Leader Mitch McConnell, accept suggested they are open to convicting Trump, which would finer end his 2024 run before it begins. Dozens of major U.S. corporations, business groups and donors who typically back Republicans have said they will suspend or stop campaign contributions to candidates who supported Trump'south challenge to the ballot results.
Merely Trump is likely to maintain a grip on the populist wing of the GOP. That was evident on Jan. viii when the Republican National Commission re-elected Trump allies Ronna Romney McDaniel and Tommy Hicks as chair and vice chair in what was widely viewed as a proxy fight over the outgoing president's role in the party. Despite the defections, the vast majority of Business firm Republicans opposed impeachment, and nearly two-thirds did Trump's bidding and objected to state-certified electoral votes for Biden even later on the violence in Washington. Recent polls accept shown that near Republican voters even so back up Trump and don't blame him for the Capitol anarchism.
"That doesn't go away overnight," said Kevin Madden, a senior adviser to Manus Romney's 2012 presidential campaign, said of Trump's popularity with the Republican base. "That power that he has, that connexion with the most active voices within his motion, is very real and it still exists."
Social Media
Any political comeback will depend on Trump finding a new mode to mobilize his base. The calibration of his de-platforming is hard to overstate. His @realDonaldTrump account had more then 88 million followers before Twitter permanently banned him on Jan. 8 for breaking its rules against glorifying violence. He too lost access to more than than thirty million Facebook friends when he was banned from that site indefinitely and at to the lowest degree through Biden's inauguration.
The president withal has ways to attain his most fervent fans though. The Official Trump 2022 Mobile App, which was used to register rally attendees and for direct messaging during the campaign, was downloaded two.6 one thousand thousand times in the last year, with users required to input telephone numbers and agree to exist contacted, according to Apptopia. Nu Wexler, a communications consultant formerly with Google, Facebook and Twitter, said Trump'due south online footprint is still remarkable amidst Republican politicians.
"He has millions of prison cell numbers from events and a fundraising email list that dwarfs the balance of his political party," said Wexler. "So he won't have any problem communicating direct with his supporters."
But conveying his message beyond that cadre will remain a challenge, and some options could prove problematic. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-police force and a White House senior adviser, stopped an attempt to sign the president up on right-wing social media platforms like Gab and Parler after Twitter suspended his business relationship last week, according to three people familiar with the matter. Parler was taken offline past Amazon Web Services for promoting violence in the wake of the Capitol anarchism and was also previously dropped by the Google and Apple app stores.
Wexler said fringier platforms similar Gab and Parler wouldn't accomplish a broader audience the way his Twitter account did. And their repeat chamber of like-minded users may bore him. "He won't go the thrill of fighting with Democrats," said Wexler.
Raising coin online could also be a problem going frontwards for a president who raised $1.half-dozen billion in his bid for a 2d term, including $167.6 1000000 that came in afterward the election as he trumpeted faux claims of widespread fraud. Payment processors PayPal, Square and Stripe take joined the social media giants in suspending accounts tied to Trump.
The Trump Organization
The New York existent estate developer made his properties the backdrop for many of the most memorable moments of his political career. He descended Trump Tower's escalator to announce his candidacy, defended White supremacists as "very fine people" in the lobby of the same building and held a crowded fundraiser at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club just before he was diagnosed with Covid-19.
Trump'southward divisive politics have inevitably impacted his family's real estate, hotel and golf empire, much of which is located in New York and other Democratic-leaning states. In a move that reportedly "gutted" the president, his Bedminster club was stripped of the 2022 PGA Championship in the wake of the Capitol anarchism, with the golf body saying that holding the prestigious event at the Trump course would be "detrimental" to its brand.
Trump Tower stands in New York.
The PGA stuck with him longer than most. Palm Beach charity assurance and social events fled Mar-a-Lago en masse after his Charlottesville remarks, and several hotels and condo buildings have exited Trump management contracts in recent years, removing the president's name from their exteriors and awnings in the process. Trump properties have also inevitably been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic along with the rest of the real estate, tourism and leisure sectors. In New York, office vacancies are rising, retail is decimated and residential rents are falling.
It all couldn't come at a worse fourth dimension for Trump, whose company carries $1 billion of debt, much of which he'southward personally liable for. Though his avails would cover that, recriminations from the Capitol riot will make refinancing a claiming. Deutsche Bank, which holds much of his debt and was the last large bank willing to do business organisation with him, has at present declared it volition no longer do so, and smaller Signature Bank, on whose board Trump's daughter Ivanka once sat, twisted the knife past declaring the president persona non grata and endmost his accounts. Even selling his assets to raise cash volition exist harder, as brokerage giants like Cushman & Wakefield and JLL have cut ties with him.
Alan Garten, general counsel for the Trump Arrangement, didn't respond to requests for comment about the state of the business organisation and its prospects.
One potential silver lining for Trump is that being president has made him even more famous than before overseas, and he may find more business concern opportunities in markets like Brazil, Turkey, the Philippines and India, where he retains some popularity and whose authoritarian leaders he courted while in office. His assistants also developed close ties in the United Arab Emirates, where he's previously done business, and Saudi Arabia, where his company considered projects prior to his ascent to the presidency.
Hussain Sajwani, chairman of Dubai's DAMAC Properties, which has partnered with Trump on two golf game courses in the emirate, said he'd welcome the chance to expand his firm'south relationship with Trump. "We have a great human relationship with the Trump Organisation and, be assured, we take absolutely no intention to cancel our understanding," he said.
Media
With a love for the limelight, Trump is expected to pursue media opportunities of some kind, whether a book deal, a lucrative function at a news channel or his own media venture.
Rumors of Trump discussing an "Apprentice" revival with show creator Mark Burnett have cropped up periodically during his time in office. In November 2019, Trump took to Twitter to deny a Daily Creature report that such talks had taken place, though he immune that information technology would be "a big show." It would exist unsurprising if Trump did seek to revive the evidence - according to the New York Times investigative report that revealed his tax information in September 2020, "The Apprentice" ultimately made him $427 million, a windfall that turned his business fortunes around.
With Trump now anathema to a large part of his former audience, a return to network TV is high unlikely, though old campaign adviser Sam Nunberg says the thought shouldn't be ruled out.
"Donald Trump is a coin-making commodity in media," Nunberg said. "There will ever be a space for him. He volition always have a tremendous audition. Even people who hate him will watch him."
Conservative media seems a surer bet, though the messy aftermath of the election has scrambled that landscape as well. Fox News' early telephone call of Arizona and subsequently the election for Biden was seen equally a stark betrayal by Trump, who began railing confronting Rupert Murdoch's bourgeois news giant and urging his supporters to switch to upstart rivals like Newsmax and Ane America News Network that more freely repeated his baseless claims of ballot fraud. But those channels still reach far fewer viewers than Flim-flam, and there have been calls for cable operators like AT&T and Comcast to drop them in the wake of the Capitol riots.
The Wall Street Journal reported in Nov that Hicks Equity Partners, an investment firm associated with RNC Vice Chair Tommy Hicks, the son of Hicks, Muse, Tate & Furst founder Tom Hicks, has tried to enhance money to help fund a right-leaning outlet to compete with Fox News. Many doubt the sometime president would exist able to raise the kind of coin needed to create a apparent culling to Fob. Political leader media columnist Jack Shafer dismissed the idea of a Trump network concluding week, noting that the former president would accept a difficult fourth dimension disarming cable companies to carry his channel, face withering competition from a in one case-friendly Fox and struggle to attract advertisers besides MyPillow.
Even just getting a volume published might be tough. The Obamas got a combined $65 one thousand thousand advance for their memoirs, and Trump would no doubt love to all-time that figure. If he does though, it might not be with a mainstream publishing house. Simon & Schuster, which is being bought by Bertelsmann SE, recently canceled plans to publish a book by Republican Senator Josh Hawley, who sought to claiming Biden's ballot win and was photographed raising his fist to salute the Capitol protesters.
But Nunberg said Trump is in a whole different category from Hawley. "Simon & Schuster would love to publish a Donald Trump volume," Nunberg said. "That book will sell more Obama's. And information technology wouldn't exist 700 pages."
Retail
Trump has long loved to slap his name on things, buildings for sure but also adult-instruction courses, vodka (though he doesn't drink) and post-club steaks (he eats his well-washed, with ketchup). This trait appears to run in the family - before her father became president, Ivanka Trump built a fashion label that sold clothes, shoes and handbags at retailers like Lord & Taylor and Bloomingdale's.
Simply, equally far as mainstream customers become, that ship probable sailed a long time agone.
"The brand is irreparably stained," said New York public relations executive Dorothy Crenshaw. The partners and retail ecosystem Donald Trump would need to get his products on the market won't want to have anything to practice with him now, she said. "I actually don't run into whatsoever viability."
Trump-branded items were dropped from Macy's and other retailers soon after he launched his campaign with a speech promising to build a border wall to proceed out "rapists" from Mexico. Ivanka's partners started pulling her merchandise in 2022 after she took an advisory function in her begetter'southward assistants, with Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus and Hudson's Bay all dropping her characterization entirely. She shut down her fashion business in 2018, and now her clothes can just be found secondhand at resellers such every bit thredUP or auction sites like eBay.
Equally in other areas, any future Trump retail enterprise will probable be geared towards the president'due south conservative base. But even maintaining the site selling Make America Great Again caps and mugs is proving difficult. Due east-commerce platform Shopify's determination to cutting ties with Trump briefly complicated online sales, although the site began operating again over the weekend.
Though the family hasn't alleged whatever intention of expanding their consumer-facing businesses, the Trumps still hold alive trademarks for products ranging from infant beddings to coffee to greeting cards. And Ivanka may notice new markets for her wares abroad - the Chinese government awarded her dozens of trademarks during her father'south time in function, many of which seemed suspiciously timed with Trump assistants foreign policy decisions, watchdog grouping Citizens for Responsibility and Ideals in Washington has pointed out.
Legal Exposure
Of course, none of that will matter if Trump is behind bars. He was already facing a number of legal threats that pre-appointment the ballot. Special Counsel Robert Mueller'due south team detailed several instances in which the president may take obstructed justice, and Trump was also potentially implicated in the entrada finance case that resulted in a three-year judgement for his old personal lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen.
Justice Department policy has shielded Trump from federal prosecution equally a sitting president, but that goes abroad on Wednesday, and the incoming administration could revive those cases. The revelation by the New York Times that Trump took a number of questionable deductions over the years and only paid $750 in income taxes in 2022 could also spur a fresh probe into possible revenue enhancement evasion.
New York country government accept been eyeing Trump too. Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance is leading a probe of the president's business organisation dealings that could ultimately result in criminal charges. New York Chaser Full general Letitia James is simultaneously pursuing an investigation into whether the Trump Organization inflated asset values.
Trump'due south personal conduct is too at effect in a number of civil cases. He could soon face depositions in two New York defamation lawsuits brought by women he said were lying when they accused him of sexual assail.
US President Donald Trump stops to speak to reporters as he prepared to board Marine Ane on the South Lawn of the White House on January 19, 2022 in Washington, DC.
Since the election, Trump has only added to his potential legal woes. His shocking January. two call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, in which he asked the election official to "find" him just enough votes to overturn Biden's victory in the country, may take violated both federal and state laws against election fraud. Such a instance could exist bolstered past boosted actions taken by Trump - telling a state investigator he would be a "national hero" if he uncovered fraud in the Georgia vote, as the Washington Mail service has reported, and forcing the resignation of the meridian federal prosecutor in Atlanta for declining to aggressively pursue baseless election-fraud claims, according to the Wall Street Periodical.
And so there's the Capitol riot. Trump gave an inflammatory speech to the crowd that then laid siege to the halls of Congress. While some legal experts say the president's exhortations may accept been too vague for him to be charged with inciting the violence, whatsoever evidence that emerges of coordination between the White Firm and radical groups that participated in storming the Capitol could change the picture.
Perhaps more than importantly, widespread outrage over the riot has scrambled the political calculations backside bringing any case against Trump. Where the Biden administration may have once preferred to move on, information technology may at present face growing calls to hold a former President Trump accountable in one way or some other.
(Except for the headline, this story has non been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
Source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/jail-the-apprentice-business-in-india-what-lies-ahead-for-donald-trump-2354496
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